The Russian-Ukrainian War started with a Belarus-Russia Joint Training that is coming back this year. Now Poland is Invited.

Belarus said it was just a training exercise - for a non-disclosed invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In 2025, Belarus says it will be just another training exercise with Russia - and Poland is invited.

In February 2022, satellite photos and news outlets revealed a massive build-up of Russian troops on Belarus's southern border. When international leaders asked Belarus and Russian Officials why Russian soldiers were piling up in the country, they explained that it was simply a joint training exercise called ‘Union Courage’ between Russian and Belarusian forces. They even invited Ukrainian Officials to observe the exercises.

Vladimir Makei, Belarus’s foreign minister, answered the reporter’s concerns by saying: “Not a single Russian serviceman, not a single piece of equipment will remain in Belarus after the completion of exercises with Russia.” The head of Belarus’ Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, told reporters that after the exercise ends, “the snap check of forces continues.” The Russian Ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, told CNN that the military exercises don’t have any reason to be a “source of concern to anybody.” Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, reacted to the international concerns of the reported build-up by telling The Moscow Times, “No one has ever said Russian troops will remain on the territory of Belarus, this has never been discussed.”

Maxar Technology US-Satellite captured this photo of Russian vehicles and troops building up in Belarus. CNN.

Well, those non-existent discussions appeared to have been discussed when the world watched Russia invade Ukraine from the north and east at the end of February 2022. As it turned out, the ‘Union Courage’ Training exercise was the Trojan horse of Belarus, carrying hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who would march their way towards Ukraine’s Capitol City of Kyiv, to decapitate the government from its country, quickly evolving the buffer-zone of NATO and Russia into a disastrous battleground that still holds Russian and Ukrainian soldiers to this day.

A narrow dirt trench in the fields of Ukraine, where a Ukrainian Soldier crouches inside. FT Getty Images.

Three years later in 2025, Russia and Belarus plan to hold another joint training exercise in September, known as ‘Zapad-2025.’ Ukrainian Intelligence, as promoted by Ukrainian President Zelensky, believes this training is the pretext for a possible second invasion of Ukraine, or shockingly, an invasion of the Baltic Countries and Poland. "Based on all the information I've gathered from intelligence and other sources, I think he (Russian President Vladimir Putin) is preparing for war against NATO countries next year," Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent. In February, Zelensky told NBC News that Putin “is preparing steps on the territory of Belarus this year. It can happen in summer, maybe in the beginning, maybe in the end of summer…There are risks that this can be Poland and Lithuania because we believe that Putin will wage war against NATO." When pushed to share the physical intelligence documents that support this claim, Zelensky told the reporter: “No, we have intelligence, we have documents that they are preparing trained mission of a big number of soldiers on the territory of Belarus.” The surrounding context of these claims makes Zelensky’s theory not so odd, especially considering the United State’s recent withdrawal of their military intelligence and weapons from Ukraine, as reported by Axios. And as I have previously reported, the Trump Administration’s speech to the Munich Conference Leaders that Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership is not a foreseeable outcome. Zelensky believes the United State’s freeze on support for Ukraine and its fragile goal of being a part of NATO will prompt Putin to initiate his secretly planned invasion of NATO countries and possibly Ukraine again. Belarus’s recent actions make this far more likely than before.

The chaotic scene in the White House last Friday, where U.S. President Trump told Zelensky he was “gambling with World War III.” Washington Post, Getty Images.

Belarus, who has been quiet during the Russia-Ukrainian War, asked Poland in February to conduct mutual military inspections between the two countries. Valery Revenko, the head of Belarus’s Defense Ministry International Military Cooperation Department, explained that the goal of such an operation is for Poland to “see for itself that we are oriented towards peace, ready for dialogue and cooperation."

Poland rejected the offer. Instead, mainly in response to the United State’s shakeup of Europe after the pause in Ukrainian support, Polish President Donald Tusk announced his country is preparing to create a reserve force that would see every adult male going through military training. “If Ukraine loses the war or if it accepts the terms of peace, armistice, or capitulation in such a way that weakens its sovereignty and makes it easier for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to gain control over Ukraine, then, without a doubt — and we can all agree on that — Poland will find itself in a much more difficult geopolitical situation,” Tusk added in his speech.

Photograph of two Polish Soldiers training in 2024. Polish MoND and ESD.

The September joint training between Russia and Belarus appears to do exactly that - put Poland in a tough geopolitical situation. Hopefully, history won’t repeat itself as it tends to do and the negotiating table will be set up, resulting in a long-lasting peace on all sides in the terrible Russia-Ukraine War. God-willing, we won’t have to endure years of a wider war between NATO Countries and Russia soon.

…We really need to start setting up those Moon and Mars Colonies just in case though.